A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."